### Title: Trump's Return to the White House: Impact on China's A-Shares Amid Sino-US Rivalry
As the dust settles on the 2024 U.S. election, Trump's return to the White House ushers in new variables in the global political and economic landscape. Trump's trade policies, energy policies, international relations, and national security policies will have a profound impact on China, which in turn will have a cascading effect on China's A-share market. This article will analyze the impact of Trump's policies on China's A-share investment from multiple dimensions and propose corresponding investment strategies.
Firstly, Trump's trade policy has a significant impact on China. The Trump administration is likely to continue imposing tariffs, which will put pressure on China's exports, forcing China to introduce larger-scale economic stimulus measures to boost market confidence. On the economic and employment front, Trump promises to bring manufacturing back to the U.S., gradually eliminate regulations that harm employment, and reduce inflation by increasing domestic energy production, repealing Biden's tax policies, and lowering corporate tax rates. On the trade front, Trump adheres to the principle of "America First," fair reciprocity, with the ultimate goal of reducing foreign tariffs on American products, unifying tariff levels, and promoting American employment. In terms of China, Trump may restrict China in the trade field, reduce imports, escalate tariffs, limit investments in the U.S., and cancel China's most-favored-nation status, etc.
On the energy and environmental front, Trump may withdraw from the Paris Climate Agreement, develop traditional energy, and expand energy infrastructure construction. This will impact China's energy policy, with China continuing to promote the development of clean energy, insisting on open cooperation, and promoting sustainable development and climate change response. In terms of international relations and national security, Trump may reshape military forces, with allies bearing military costs; an anti-war stance, resolving Middle East issues, ending the Russia-Ukraine war; and repairing relations with Russia and North Korea.
Combining China's future economic trends, Goldman Sachs Research Department expects China's GDP growth to be 4.8% in 2024, maintaining an "overweight" position on A-shares. The chief China equity strategist of Goldman Sachs Research Department, Liu Jinjin and his team, remain cautiously optimistic about the Chinese stock market, believing that economic improvements are likely to drive a rebound in corporate profits, and A-shares are valued at a historical low. In terms of industries, Goldman Sachs prefers consumer-oriented industries rather than manufacturing, thus holding an "overweight" rating on the internet industry (consumer technology), service industry, and catering industry.
In summary, Trump's return to the White House has a multifaceted impact on China's A-share investment. China needs to do its own thing, strive for the economy, and investors need to closely monitor the direction of Trump's policies and the response measures of the Chinese government to formulate a reasonable investment strategy.